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Time is Money

by Dave Thrifty

Last Month we looked at Barclays' Equity Index going back to 1945 and how well equity investments have performed over long periods.

There is little doubt that equities are a dangerous place to be in if you have a short investment horizon. But if you have ten or more years before realizing your investment, equities will generally come out on top with one big proviso. You really do need the psychological equipment to handle the bleak downturns that equities will surely bring. It’s been my experience that there’s no free ride; anywhere in life.

This Month I came across the past history of the Standard & Poor’s 500 index.

This index has not suffered a loss in any 15 year period going back to 1926

This basket of the 500 large cap U S stocks with dividends reinvested, delivered average annual gains of 11.3% between January 1926 and December 1999 easily beating inflation

- the No 1 enemy of investors.

If we compound 11.3% each year in real money terms what does it mean?

A US$1,000 investment in the S&P 500 in January 1926 would have grown to

US$2,845,628.to day

But not many of us invested US$1,000 in 1926 and are still running around Thailand with nearly 3 Million bucks. The point of the illustration is to make a case for sticking in there.

A more realistic scenario to make the point is the following.

Had you invested US$10,000 in the S&P at the end of December 1989.it would have begun ominously. Stock prices had crashed in October 1987 but the benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average clawed its way back over the following year. By the middle of 1990 the Dow had risen well above its precrash levels. But as the US economy slumped into recession, the market tumbled sharply losing roughly 20 percent between July and October 1990.

After that the tide turned.

For much of the next eight years the stock market never looked back. The $10,000

which had ridden roughshod in the early years by December 1999 was worth $53,243. Another proof that time is money

Of course it’s easy being wise in hindsight. The wounds of a 20% downturn on your portfolio in real terms at the time of the fall is forgetting about your grandchild’s education forgetting about that new holiday home and if you’re elderly a more modest retirement than planned.

Even though we are familiar with the investment benefits of staying in the market how many of us who say invested $1 million in 1989 would have sat tight when we had lost

$200,000 ? If we had of course we would have had a nest egg of over 5 million 10 years later.

I’m making this point so strongly because I know that not all of us are equipped to handle these crippling losses

Look at these two scenarios.

You are given $1,000. Choose between (a) a sure gain of $500 or (b) a 50% chance to gain $1,000 and a 50% chance to gain nothing.

Question 2 you’re given $2,000 Choose between (a) a sure loss of $500 or (b) a 50% chance to lose $1,000 and a 50% chance to lose nothing.

Look closely at the problem. The possible outcome from each situation is the same but how the question is phrased can influence your decision

Richard Thaler of the University of Chicago maintains that we avoid risk to capture additional gain but we will take a risk to avoid a loss. These two questions if answered honestly seem to illustrate that:

The bottom lines when all the little games are over is how well will you sleep at night after a 20% drop in your portfolio. You might have the dream of increasing your wealth in the future but remember you could loose another 20% in the next month.

Past historical performance is a great guide but the guarantee of future performance is never there in equity markets. Think hard and long before jumping in. If you choose equities make sure you have the time and the stomach for them.

david.thrifty@yahoo.com

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Course Conditions Promote Big Scores

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Things are certainly heating up in the race for 2018 World Cup qualification, which this time around will be held on Russian soil.Despite the furore surrounding placement of this and the 2022 World Cup Finals, qualification for the most prestigious of national tournaments is on the final furlong.

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On the 12th August 2017, Thailand will celebrate Mother’s Day which is of course the day that the whole nation celebrates the birthday of Her Majesty Queen Sirikit, who is widely regarded as the Mother of all Thai people, and hence the name of this auspicious occasion is Mother’s Day.

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Let’s face it; nobody ever became a millionaire just by saving money. If you want to increase your wealth to its full potential, you have got to invest it wisely over a period of time.

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When people come and live in Thailand one of the things that is often neglected is medical insurance. In their home country they are so used to rolling up at their doctor or hospital and not having to pay anything out of their own pocket

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A look at why traditional models of finance are increasingly inadequate at explaining stock market movement and why the fledgling discipline of behavioural finance may hold some of the answers.

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Beware the scam artist brokers in Thailand.

For many years I have been an advocate of using a locally based offshore adviser who has roots here, and has been living here for at least a decade, owns property here, has a Thai wife or partner and who has committed his future to living here.

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The Thai Tourism Minister, Kobkarn Wattanavrangkul, plans another rebranding exercise for Pattaya and four other destinations, with the aim of making it widely known that Pattaya is a family friendly quality beach resort as opposed to one known for its nightlife.

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Thailand's economic growth rate is likely to be less than one per cent for 2014, while the 2015 target of four percent looks increasingly difficult to attain, due to a weak global economy according to Kasikorn Research Center. The think tank's managing director, Charl Kengchon, said, "What we are most concerned about is next year's growth figure since 4% is challenging and it is still uncertain whether we can achieve that growth rate."

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When buying a property in Thailand, one of the stipulations is that you will need to bring the money in from overseas. There are plenty of ways to do this but getting the best rate is key. Since you will bring in a large mount of money for the purchase of a property, every percentage point of exchange rate change will cost or save you a good deal of money

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Due to an improving economic recovery that will undoubtedly spur spending, Thailand's household debt is expected to rise next year and possibly for the next few years. Credit card use will be one of the factors behind the expected increase according Kasikorn Research Center (KResearch).

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LETTERS FROM READERS

LETTERS FROM READERS

Hi Pattaya Trader – Thank you for an always very interesting read. Is there any way you could publish this – I would dearly like to help the Mabprachan Animal shelter – I know they are not the only ones looking after stay and abandoned animals, but they have my undying gratitude for the way they helped me Yours very sincerely, Rick Walton Soi 11 Thappraya Road Jomtien 0892 465 210

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More and more the master bedroom is seen not just a place to sleep but almost a home within a home. An all-in-one space where you can enjoy a calm,serene retreat.

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There are so many reasons people like staying in a hotel. A chance to get away, ring up for room service and a good night’s sleep.

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First impressions count. Keep the front of the property tidy, water plants and ensure there is no peeling paint or cracked exterior walls.

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Luxury Properties

Luxury Properties

What constitutes a luxurious home? Is it the location, or perhaps the design and build? Or is it a spacious grand villa with expansive land and manicured lawns? Perhaps a state of the art penthouse apartment in a swanky condominium? There is no definitive answer as everybody’s taste is different and what to some people might be the ultimate in luxury, to other people might be an over furnished and cluttered living space.What cannot be disputed, however is that the location can add that extra zing to any type of property.

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Ten tips to increase the value of your property

Ten tips to increase the value of your property

Research has confirmed what many have suspected: that the differentials between a top-end property and a truly luxurious one are increasing.

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Common mistakes agents make

Competition is stiff in the property world. If you don’t provide your client with the best possible service, they could go elsewhere. We have selected some of the industries faux pas for you to take heed of.

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Preparing For The High Season

Preparing For The High Season

We are all aware that this low season many businesses have been complaining that trade is bad and every industry has been hit by a downturn of people on Pattaya’s sois. Real estate has been no different, and any agent or developer will inform you that times are tough.

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Gearing Up For The High Season From a Digital Perspective

Gearing Up For The High Season From a Digital Perspective

With the high season about to kick off soon, we at The Pattaya Trader wanted to ask a pertinent question….

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COST OF ADVICE

COST OF ADVICE

A friend recently complained about the fees he had paid to his broker in the UK to manage his portfolio over the last year. He has a moderate fund of $60,000 and had paid just under $900 for the last 12 months.

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THE LAUNCH PARTY OF VILLA ASIATIC

THE LAUNCH PARTY OF VILLA ASIATIC

Hosted by Catherine Petit Managing Director of FED Property Co.,Ltd. (www.villaasiatic.com) at The Havana Bar, Holiday Inn

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Bringing Your Property Business into the 21st Century

Bringing Your Property Business into the 21st Century

Buyers have changed. The Russian numbers have dropped significantly and the Chinese have shown signs of moving in, along with their Korean and albeit in smaller numbers Japanese counterparts.

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5 Reasons Why Your Business Should Be Using Banner Advertising!

Getting ahead in business nowadays very often means doing the things that your competitors aren't doing .When it comes to websites and digital marketing there are nearly always things you can do to help raise the profile of your business and generate more enquiries.

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Get addicted when you’re young.

Get addicted when you’re young.

This came to mind watching young and middle-aged farangs in Walking St. I wondered how many of them had a regular savings habit and how many just squandered their earnings as they came ? Let me ask you how many retired people you know who have no regular savings and just get by on state pensions from their country of origin? If they had been forced to make pension contributions while working, then their golden years would not be impoverished ones.

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Last Will and Testament

Last Will and Testament

The Last Will and Testament is a declaration of intent concerning disposition of your assets or other matters which shall take effect, according to law, after your demise.

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AMAZING DEALS ON LAND AND PROPERTY

AMAZING DEALS ON LAND AND PROPERTY

If you’ve ever wanted to live directly on the beach look no further than this fabulous 3 level home located at a great Waterfront location in Na Jomtien. Boasting 6 magnificent bedrooms and bathrooms 2 living rooms and a stunning sea view swimming pool it is set in beautiful landscaped gardens and is available complete with luxury furniture, fixtures and fittings.

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If you have a Thai wife-Face Reality.

If you have a Thai wife-Face Reality.

Many “farangs” living happily in Thailand, with a young Thai wife and small children, live with their head firmly in the sand. Some are afraid to look at their future and what will happen to their children when they pass away.

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City Garden Tower - New Sales Office

City Garden Tower - New Sales Office

The Global Top Development, City Garden Tower is a centrally-located luxury condominium that is setting new standards in design and sophistication for city living in Pattaya. City Garden Tower’s high-rise domination of the Pattaya skyline is both awe inspiring and inviting at the same time.

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Costs Costs and more Costs

Costs Costs and more Costs

There is forever a debate in our industry about costs, whether it’s the cost of advice, the cost of products or the cost of investing.

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